優化退休現金流(上)-自我評估工具

原創作者：Winner Chen 日期：2021/07/25

退休是「講究」或是「將就」的生活，由現金流決定！

聽了許多退休的論點，大家都知道的是，要先存好一桶金，要會理財，要有健康的身體…，可是到底什麼樣的退休準備才是最合適自己的呢？
本文分上下二篇，在上篇中將提供一套簡易版退休現金流模擬工具，讓每個人都能更好的計劃未來，安享退休生活！下篇更加精彩，最終的結論可能會顛覆您的理財思維，讓我們開始吧！

1.退休目標設立

在HAPPY致富方程式(文章連結)，已經將退休的五個關聯變項完整定義，接著，我們要做的就是制定一個適合自己的退休現金流。而目標設立就是最重要的第一步，所謂凡事起頭難，先設定了H (Hope Level期望年花費)。我們思考一下，如果現在的花費是每個月5萬，到了退休時有那些是可以扣除的，例如保險費、房貸、孩子教育費用等，再加上，退休後會多出的花費，如旅遊、公益、醫藥及保健費用等。值得一提的是，完善的醫療保險規劃可以完全消除老年醫療費用的不確定性，對於退休財務非常重要！

先恭喜您！有了H，您已經有了一個提早退休的好開端。

Hope Level 期望年花費 = 現在的花費 – 未來不需要花費的 + 未來增加的花費

2.使用退休現金流工具

預先下載Excel表：退休現金流優化模型-V1.9下載
退休現金流優化模型-圖例

模型功能

筆者開發這張表，是源自於希望可以提供給周遭朋友，一個明確的退休建議，因此運用這張表，可以至少達到：

1. 估算退休資產的現金流收入，做為優化的參考

2.估算優化前後的差異性，做為優化投報率評估的基礎

財務資料填入

1. 黃色背景的格子都是可以更動的
2. Step2的年收入保留，是每年工作所得扣除開銷(含貸款償還，各種稅，食衣住行育樂)
3. Step2的資產ABC，是用以計算其他類資產的現金流，可用孳息/本金回推填入，依實際情況選擇年單利或年複利增長
4. Step2的資產型保險，可以直接輸入退休時之保單現金價值，並且填入現金價值的年增率(非預定利率)，依條款選擇年單利或年複利增長
5. Step2的房租收入，當有一戶以上非自住時，將房價加總，同理租金收入亦為總租金扣除總房貸本息。
6. Step2的商業年金，需輸入年金開始給付日以及年金金額，年金開始給付後，現金價值視為0
7. Step3的即期商業年金(一次性交費，每年固定領取)只需要填入年金給付和給付年齡，而市場品項眾多所得結果僅供參考
8. Step3的配置ABC，是優化現金流所使用的工具，重點在退休時本金x收益率
9. 在Step3 如果要加入保險，把總保費放在總金額，退休時的現金價值放在退休時本金，然後把預估的利率填上

特別說明：

1. 自住房的自用必要性質，因此不計算在退休準備中。
2. 以房養老是以自住房做為標的，每月實得是逐漸下降的，但最低不得低於首月實得之2/3
2. 通貨膨漲率主要是用在計算未來的退休金折現，即便現金流大於退休月支出，但總體報酬率卻低於通貨膨漲率時，曲線仍會往下
3. 商業年金，收益率與壽命相關，因此無法估算，不計入退休總體報酬率中。
4. 若可領取社會保險、勞退老年年金，請自行從「退休每月支出」中扣除。
5. 退休金現值是不包含房產(無法如現金彈性處置)及商業年金(活到老領到老，不考慮中途解約轉換)

3.優化前分析解讀

A-退休準備(Step2)：

這是在所設定的退休年齡，考慮了退休前的工作年收入儲蓄，以及現在資產增值至退休年齡之未來估值(未考慮通膨率)，也代表開始進入退休時的財務存量起始點，如果理財能力佳，此值會逐年緩降，甚至還可能與時俱增。

B-資產總體報酬率(Step2)：

也就是現況(優化前)資產，在一年後你可以獲得多少收入，如果這個數值低於上式中的通貨膨漲率，表示，未來的資產價值會不斷的貶值，優化現金流是刻不容緩最重要的事(甚至比優化工作更重要)。但千萬不要沮喪，如果目前的結果愈低，代表進步的空間愈大，你即將投入的理財時間資本，將會帶來巨大的投報率！

C-優化前月現金流：

根據HAPPY致富方程式，所追求的退休目標，是當所有的P (Payoff)加總大於A(Adjusted Level)，這觀點和暢銷書「富爸爸窮爸爸」相同。為了達到這個目標，除了不斷的尋找並且買入P，如果仍達不到H (Hope Level)，退而求其次是降低A(Adjusted Level)，讓加總P高於A即可。所謂月現金流，是指工資以外的被動式收入，此處未計入勞保及勞退等社保老年給付，可自行從Step1 的退休每月支出中扣除。

勞保年金、勞退新制、國民年金估算連結：
國民年金 https://www.1955.gov.tw/0100754.html
勞保老年年金 https://www.1955.gov.tw/0100398.html
勞退新制年金 https://calc.mol.gov.tw/trial/personal_account_frame.asp

D-優化前退休金現值及圖表

設定退休時之退休準備為起始點(扣除房產及年金保費)，再根據退休每月支出(流出減項)，通貨膨脹率(流出減項)，各項退休正向現金流(流入加項)，估算出每年餘額。藍色線條及紅色線條分別表示優化前及優化後的各年齡退休金餘額，橘色區塊是退休後我們累積花用的總金額。

E-退休金可使用至(年齡)

此即，HAPPY致富方程式裡面的Y (Years of freedom)，代表退休金餘額小於0之年齡。

在未進行優化前，可以修改退休年齡、退休每月支出、或通貨膨脹率，獲得彼此間交互變化的感受。亦可在優化結果無法達成目標時，再回頭修改，最終獲得符合自己實際情況的結果，即退休年齡、退休花費、優化所應採用之工具報酬率設定等等。

4.退休現金流優化模擬

試算表中提供了三種常用的優化現金流方式，並以”優化後可使用至(年齡)”，來評估優化的效益：

一、採用商業即期年金直接補充現金流

採用2021年台灣某保險公司的即期年金產品之費率表做為背景資料，填入”年金開始給付日”及”平均每月領取年金”後，可以估算出一次性交費的金額。如果我們已有這樣的財力購置這項年金資產，恭喜你，可以關閉這篇文章了，你接下來要做的就是聯繫壽險顧問，讓他為你建議保險商品，筆者只有一個提醒，請務必選擇”利變”型產品，以因應未來利率上漲或下跌風險！

需特別注意，如果年金保費來源，是退休時之存款和可現金化之各種保單、金融商品等，必須在Step2中調整金額，否則，優化後的退休金餘額會有重覆計算的結果。

二、採用以房養老補充現金流

台灣近年來熱門的養老選項，即把房子抵押給銀行，並每月從銀行領取一定金額，最後根據身故前總領取金額加計利息與房價之間差額交給繼承人。因此房子還是能自住，只不過房子最後是銀行收走。在試算表中，可以填入退休時的房屋估值，在貸款成數為七成的情況下，可選擇二十年或三十年房貸，即可推算出每月可領取之金額。

即便此項模擬結果，以房養老最終結果是符合您的退休期待，而且你也不介意最後房子是銀行的，我仍然要建議繼續往下看下去，「留房養老」或許是更好的選擇。

使用時特別注意，由於「以房養老」概念上是將自住房做為標的，因此不需要更動Step2的房租收入。但若是以收租房為標的，那就需要調整或刪除Step2的房租收入。

想要穩健的退休金 「以房養老」、「留房養老」哪個適合我？

三、優化投資組合

在運用了前面二種優化方式都無法達到滿意的退休現金流，我們就有必要進行第三種方式「以投資理財提高總體資產投報率」。

(A)：首先，我們需要先抄錄下「優化前月現金流」數字，做為對照
(B)：將Step2的"退休時"年收入保留、活存及定存，提取一部份做為投資組合之本金。(各項目金額相應調整，保持加總相同)
(C)：嘗試將配置A投報率設定為5%，填入B之本金，觀察「優化後月現金流)，是否能達到退休每月支出？若過高或過低，嘗試將本金(從B提撥)或投報率做調整，最終將得到一個適當的「本金」和「投報率」。這裡有一個貼心的設計，在「加入投資組合」選擇"否"時，此項將不計算在內，需要時再選擇"是"即可！
(D)：利用配置A和配置B做資產配置的組合，舉個例子：若(C)得出的本金是1000萬及5%投報率，將將配置A採用400萬穩健的2%，配置B採用600萬高收益的7%，加權平均即為5%。
(E)：運用各種方式找尋合適自己的投資方式，如基金、海外債券、海內外不動產投資等，最終完成退休後現金流>退休每月支出！Done完成了~恭喜！

四、資產活化-留房養老方案

除了前項所提各種方式外，將不動產抵押給銀行，貸款的本金做穩健的投資配置，只要投資組合投報率高於貸款利率，那就會構成「低風險套利」的空間。這個方式，我在下一篇做詳盡的分享，請看倌繼續看下去~

如果您覺得這個「退休現金流優化」的確有幫助，可以請我喝杯☕哦！

3Q~ありがとうArigato~Merci~感恩啦！

掃左側 QR 碼或點擊下方信用卡付款連結都！Thank you~😘

https://p.ecpay.com.tw/B7A9FD9

優化退休現金流(下)-資產活化之留房養老

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